Fewer, Better Animals · Center for Policy ResearchCOP17 project details
COP17 · ULAANBAATAR 2026 · NATIONAL GREENLAB TOP 15

Fewer, Better Animals

A pilot-proven blended finance model for Mongolia's pastoral transformation

Breaking the incentive trap — not just the symptoms

27
Years in the field
3
Target aimags
$1.8M
Funding sought
330
Soums — replication potential
01 · PROBLEM

Measured productivity collapse

Mongolia's herders work harder but earn less. This is not their fault.

432%
Overstocking rate, Arkhangai 2024
−13.9%
Carcass weight, 1990–2016
−19%
Milk yield, 2010–2015

Why do herders keep maximising herds?

Not by choice — the incentive structure gives them no alternative:

Diagram illustrating Mongolia's herder incentive trap
From the original presentation — illustrating the incentive dynamics behind Mongolia's overstocking problem. (Caption to be confirmed/refined once reviewed.)
1. No boundaries, no carrying capacity knowledge — herders cannot enforce limits; open access means any investment in herd reduction is captured by neighbours (tragedy of the commons).
2. No quality price premium — a herder who invests in animal quality receives the same flat market price as one who invests nothing; good practice is penalised.
3. No reward for restraint — without verified herd reduction targets and enforcement, "green loans" remain paper compliance, not real change.
44% of Mongolia's territory is degraded — accelerating. Source: Mongolia UNCCD National Report, PRAIS 2026 — analysis conducted by CPR under FAO contract (competitive selection). Primary driver: rangeland degradation from livestock overstocking.
02 · SOLUTION

5 interlocking mechanisms — all pilot-proven

Five mechanisms that fix the incentive structure, not just its symptoms.

1Pasture Use Agreement
2Lamb Fattening
3Disease-Free Certification
4Single-Point Collection
5Green Loans, Both Sides

Read the full Booklet → for how each mechanism closes the bottleneck the previous one creates.

The 5-mechanism solution to the vicious circle
From the original presentation — the 5 mechanisms as a solution to the vicious circle. (Caption to be confirmed/refined once reviewed.)

What makes this different?

✓ Verified outcomes, not paper compliance — NSO census + vet certification confirms reduction is real (slaughter, not live transfer), closing the additionality & leakage gap. This project adds a birth-to-death animal registry + herder app for continuous, year-round verification.
✓ Green loans on BOTH sides of the market — processor loans conditional on paying quality premiums; herder loans conditional on verified herd reduction. Demand and supply aligned.
✓ Faster economic turnover for herders — lamb fattening sells same-year, not after 2–3 years; income accelerated, herd size reduced, pasture pressure relieved simultaneously.
✓ Face-to-face training changes behaviour — 10–15% of households voluntarily enroll after full disclosure of herd-reduction terms — genuine economic demand, not subsidy effect.
★ Pilot-proven across 4 donor programs — herd reduction 12–21% above control groups in every trial (KfW, ADB, UNDP, MCC).
03 · IMPACT

Proven results, costed path to national impact

10,560K
tCO2e/yr — full national scale (Phase 3)
108%
of Mongolia's NDC 2035 agriculture target

Mongolia's NDC 3.0 (2025) attributes 9,781.2K tCO2e of its 2035 agriculture target to improving livestock turnover and increasing exports — the exact mechanism this project delivers, piloted and costed across 3 phases.

Verified results & 3-phase pathway

PhaseParticip.tCO2e/yrHerder HHs
1 · Pilot (this project)30%38K798
2 · Regional (59 soums, 3 aimags)90%1,888K28.9K
3 · National (330 soums)90%10,560K162K
+97.2%
Productivity growth (per SU) — fewer animals, more income
28.8%
De-risked EIRR · NPV $102K
MNT 19M → 27.9M/HH — annual cash income growth per participating household.* *Assumes full 4-year project engagement, household-level trajectory.

Triple wins: climate, land, people

🌡️ Climate — same lever as Mongolia's largest NDC sector target (agriculture, 9,781.2K tCO2e).
🌿 Land & biodiversity — reverses the overgrazing driving desertification and vegetation-diversity loss.
👪 Livelihoods & culture — protects nomadic pastoralism and poor herders' grazing rights against encroachment.
💰 High-value markets — PUA compliance unlocks organic export premiums up to +150% over conventional.
04 · TEAM

27 years · 13+ donor programs · verified results at scale

Dr. A. Enkh-Amgalan, Team Leader/Ag Economist

Team worked together on:

Donor-validated track record

MCC/MCA-Mongolia2010–2013
386 herder groups · Land use agreements + training · 64.2% reached carrying capacity
World Bank2022–2026
Arkhangai Investment Planning + GFDRR Resilience
ADB2020–2022
Cooperative Sustainable Agriculture · $374K · Herd −21.4% vs −5.6% non-project
EBRD + MED2023
Green Portfolio Expert · Mongolia green project pipeline
UNDP/GCF (ADAPT)2022–2025
Herder Producer Orgs, PPCP · 4 aimags · Herd −20.6% (2022–2024)
KfW Germany (BACCP)2021–2022
Herder green loans · 5 soums · Borrowers −12.4% vs soum avg +5.3%
UNDP/GEF (ENSURE)2019–2022
Pasture management · 13 soums · 1,300 HHs · 610,000 ha
FAO + EU / MOFALI2021–2025
Sustainable food systems · PUA procedures & contract templates for MOFALI

Policy alignment: MOFALI (PUA legislation) · GreenLab (Office of the President). Execution (CPR): technical design, capacity building, monitoring, MRV. Verification: NSO census + vet certification + soum ag office.

CPR est. 1998 · ISO 9001:2015 · 60+ staff & consultants · All aimags & soums network · Ulaanbaatar 14240

05 · FINANCIALS & ASK

$1.8M to prove replicability — then scale to 330 soums nationwide

$1.8M
Total funding sought
3 soums
1 per aimag · 4 years
798 HH
~30% participation

See the Financial Model for the full 4-phase cost & impact pathway.

Cost benchmark: CPR's own MCC/MCA-Mongolia project (2010–2013) — 386 herder groups, $2.2M (~$3.3M in 2026 dollars), same team. Our $1.8M delivers 5 integrated components — including a proposed MRV upgrade — with verifiable MRV at better cost-effectiveness.

Use of funds

ComponentUSDFinance type
PUA + Single-Point Collection$990.4KGrant (incl. green-loan subsidy)
Lamb Fattening (51 packages, 3 soums)$359.1KGrant
Disease-Free Zone Certification$102.9KGrant
Monitoring & Verification$257.1KGrant
MRV Upgrade (registry + app)$100.0KGrant (proposed)
TOTAL (3 soums)$1.8MEIRR 28.8% · NPV $102K

What we are looking for at COP17

💰 Impact-first funder — $1.8M blended grant covering all 5 components: PUA, Lamb Fattening, Disease-Free Zone, Monitoring, and the proposed MRV upgrade.
🤝 Strategic partners — Anyone who can connect us to GCF, Adaptation Fund, or other climate funds. MOFALI policy mainstreaming. Commercial banks for green loans.
🌍 COP17 visibility — feature as Mongolia Rangelands Flagship. Link to Finance Day, August 24, on land degradation finance.
🌱 Carbon market enabler — both methane reduction and soil carbon sequestration require verified herd reduction first. This project solves the prerequisite.

Thank you.

Questions & discussion welcome.

A. Enkh-Amgalan · Founding Director, Center for Policy Research
📱 WhatsApp: +976 99119027 · ✉ cpr@cpr.mn · www.cpr.mn

−16.2% herds · +45% HH income growth · 98.8% loan repayment · 28.8% EIRR (de-risked)
$1.8M ask · 3 soums · Phase 1 of 4 · 330 soums national replication potential

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