A $1.8M pilot across three soums — one in each of Mongolia's key ecological zones — built entirely from CPR's own implemented pilot data and bottom-up herder transition costs, and pressure-tested against dzud, drought, and market risk before we put a number on the page.
Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Uvurkhangai — one soum each, covering forest-steppe, steppe, and Gobi. 20% herder participation, scaled to a costed pathway toward full adoption.
Costs reflect fixed setup (training, Single-Point facilities), participation-linked spend, bottom-up herder transition & quality-compliance costs (built from real NSO livestock cost data), and a proposed MRV upgrade. Benefits combine pasture-productivity income (PUA + Single-Point) and lamb meat-sale revenue (Lamb Fattening) — two distinct income sources, not double-counted. Year 4 holds Year 3's benefit and cost flat, reflecting local stakeholders continuing the model at their own cost after project funding ends in Year 3.
| Year | Cost | Benefit | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | $128.0K | $0 | -$128.0K |
| Year 1 | $597.7K | $500.2K | -$97.5K |
| Year 2 | $568.3K | $892.9K | $324.6K |
| Year 3 | $515.5K | $856.4K | $340.9K |
| Total Project (Years 0–3, the funding ask) | $1,809.5K | $2,249.5K | $440.0K |
| Year 4 (local continuation, not project-funded) | $515.5K | $856.4K | $340.9K |
| Grand Total (Years 0–4, full IRR/NPV cash flow) | $2,324.9K | $3,105.9K | $781.0K |
Source: GreenLab Financial Model, "Project" sheet — built from CPR pilot data (KfW Buffer Zone, UNDP/GEF ENSURE, UNDP/GCF ADAPT, ADB Cooperative-Based Sustainable Agriculture, EBRD Cashmere) and bottom-up transition costs from NSO livestock production cost data, including herder training costs for Lamb Fattening.
The undiscounted 4-year IRR is 83.7% — but that assumes every dollar of pilot-validated benefit lands on schedule, with no allowance for dzud, drought, price shocks, or the real transition costs herders bear when destocking and meeting quality standards. We tested that assumption directly rather than leave it unstated.
| Benefit retained | Scenario | IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 100% | No discount — pilot-validated, undiscounted, bottom-up transition costs included | 83.7% |
| 90% | Modest haircut | 51.2% |
| 83.2% | Mongolia data-derived (25-yr dzud + price history, 3 pilot aimags) — recommended pitch figure | 28.8% |
Costs — including bottom-up herder transition and quality-compliance costs, built from real NSO livestock cost data and herder training costs for Lamb Fattening — held constant across all scenarios; this stresses realized benefit, not spend. The 83.2% factor is derived from 25 years (2000–2024) of Mongolia dzud-loss and livestock-price data specific to the 3 pilot aimags — see the full financial model workbook's "Risk Calibration" sheet for the complete dataset and derivation.
Why implementation and stabilization risk aren't applied on top: implementation risk (discounting the chance an unproven program underdelivers) doesn't apply — our EIRR comes from CPR's already-implemented pilots, not projections. Stabilization risk (discounting benefit lapse after project support ends) is already built directly into the model's structure — Year 4 is explicitly modelled as local stakeholders continuing at their own cost, not project funding — so a separate discontinuation discount would double-count an effect the cash flow already represents.
The 28.8% de-risked EIRR is not an isolated projection — it's built up from two verified growth drivers in the same financial model, not a separate claim layered on top.
Once established, herder income gains persist for the 15+ year term of the Pasture Use Agreement — a durable return, not a one-time bump. Year 4 is already modelled with local stakeholders continuing at their own cost, not project funding.
Benefits continue at Year 3/4 levels for the life of the Pasture Use Agreement, in line with the 20-year appraisal horizon standard for rural natural-resource-management investments (World Bank, ADB, GCF) — without further project funding.
Every assumption, formula, and sensitivity scenario — live in Excel, not just summarized here. Available on request, so we can walk you through the methodology directly.