Turning open-access pasture into accountable, contract-based land
Under open access, any herder who reduces their herd simply hands the freed-up pasture to a neighbour. Restraint is punished; overstocking is the only rational move.
A 15-year contract between a Primary Herder Household Association and the Soum Governor. It defines seasonal pasture boundaries, aligns livestock numbers with carrying capacity, and replaces open-access grazing with an accountable, contract-based system.
| Indicator | Herd-max | PUA |
|---|---|---|
| Livestock change (5 yr) | +27.6% | −22.6% |
| Cash income / HH (5 yr) | +2.8% | +47% |
| Income per sheep-unit | −15.4% | +97.2% |
| Overgrazing rate (Year 5) | 595% | 325% |
| HH cash income (₮M) | 13.7→14.1 | 13.7→20.1 |
Source: CPR herd turnover model, NSO data — average soum, Arkhangai aimag.
| Program | Participants | Non-part. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENSURE (UNDP/GEF) — 13 soums, 2019–23 | −18.2% | −11.1% | 7.1pp |
| ADAPT (UNDP/GCF) — 4 aimags, 2022–24 | −25% | −4% | 20.6pp |
| ADB Pilot — cooperative-based, 2019–22 | −21.4% | −5.6% | 15.8pp |
A note on verification: herd-count figures above are drawn from NSO's end-of-year livestock census, based largely on herders' own oral reporting — sufficient to demonstrate the pattern shown here, but not yet the continuous, evidence-backed record carbon markets require. Component 5 (Green Loans) proposes a birth-to-death animal registry plus herder app as a more verifiable upgrade to this same data source.
Boundary size is what makes this work or fail in practice. If a PUA boundary is drawn too large — covering many unrelated households — non-member households can still graze inside it during whichever season the agreement doesn't specifically restrict, and some signing members end up wintering outside the boundary altogether. Once that happens, no single signing household can be fairly held accountable, and enforcement collapses even though the agreement still exists on paper. Small, kinship- or friendship-based groups avoid this: their boundaries map onto households that already know and trust each other.
That same trust base is why small groups can actually hit the 5% annual reduction target while larger ones struggle to. The target is set and assessed at the group level, not household by household. A household with under roughly 200 head has little room to reduce further, so wealthier members cut more and carry the group's target — small, tight-knit groups already run informal mutual-support norms that let them absorb an uneven reduction burden.
Pasture-raised livestock within carrying capacity naturally qualifies as organic — no antibiotics, no residues, rotational grazing. That opens export markets where demand outstrips supply.
| Market | Conventional | Organic | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA (per kg) | $11 | $17.40 | +58% |
| China — Beijing (per kg) | $10.70 | $15.00 | +40% |
| Russia — major cities (per kg) | $11–15 | $20–38 | +80–150% |
Source: CPR market survey data. US market: $80B total, 12M tonnes/yr — 3% organic share alone (360K tonnes) exceeds Mongolia's total current meat export capacity.
Who loses — and why that's good governance: officials who arbitrarily allocate pasture for personal gain; "informal powerful" herders who expand at neighbours' expense; mining and tourism operators treating pasture as a free resource; absentee urban livestock owners grazing on others' land without accountability.