Under the contract with FAO, CPR has evaluated the major impacts of the consecutive 2023-2024 dzud on the livestock sector of Mongolia
The 2023-2024 dzud was one of the worst recently, especially in the case of affected aimags. Nationwide 4.9 m of animals were lost in 2023 and 8.1 m in 2024.
The worst-affected aimags in 2023, with 6% and higher mortality rates, include Khentii (16.9%), Sukhbaatar (12.5%), Uvs (11.8%), Arkhangai (11.6%), Darkhan-Uul (9.1%), Khovd (8.5%), Bulgan (6.8%), Umnugobi (6.4%), and Zavkhan (6.3%), and their losses account for 72% of the national losses in 2023.
The worst affected aimags in 2024 with 6% and higher mortality rates include Sukhbaatar (47.2%), Govisumber (27.2%), Dornogobi (26.8%), Khentii (22.8%), Arkhangai (19.7%), Bulgan (15.8%), Tuv (14.7%), Dornod (12.4%), Dundgobi (9.3%), Zavkhan (7.9%), Uvs (7.1%), Khuvsgul (6.8%), Bayankhongor (6.64%), and their losses account for 94% of the national losses in 2024.
Figure 1 Worst affected aimags in the 2023-2024, animal mortality rates, %
Animal mortality rates of 6% and more suggest that dzud conditions have been worse in these aimags, creating conditions that trigger index-based livestock insurance indemnities to herders based on the 6% threshold level.
Out of 16 worst affected aimags, six aimags are affected in 2023 and 2024. They include Sukhbaatar, Khentii, Arkhangai, Bulgan, Uvs and Zavkhan, where Sukhbaatar, Khentii and Arkhangai are the worst affected losing more than one-third of animals in two consecutive years. Especially, the Sukhbaatar aimag was worst affected losing 59.6% of the livestock in the 2023-2024 dzud. According to the Aimag Department of Food and Agriculture, 52.8% of herder households in the aimag lost more than 50% of their livestock in 2024.
The cumulative 2023-2024 dzud damage was estimated to be MNT 2991.1 billion nationwide with 1167.3 in 2023 and 1823.8 in 2024.
Dzud consequences are not limited to only livestock deaths or damage but involve continuing impacts after dzud, evidenced by declining livestock productivity and income losses for herders. The dzud-caused productivity loss in 2024 was estimated to be MNT 273.3 billion.
Overall, the 2023-2024 dzud was the second worst in the past 20 years ranking only after the disastrous 2010 dzud, with the total damage and loss accounting for 2.17% of GDP and 16.64% of total agricultural output in 2023 and 3.15% of GDP and 30.89% of total agricultural output in 2024.